In every single place you look within the working world, evidently course data are falling.
In February 2025, the observe and discipline world was taken by storm because the indoor mile world file fell twice in 5 days, and the indoor 3,000-meter and 5,000-meter world data had been additionally reset. This enhance in pace on the high of the sphere has additionally been seen within the path working world, and course data throughout the ultra-distance spectrum are being damaged left and proper. Up to now 12 months, a number of the most prolific races noticed their course data fall: the Hardrock 100, Leadville 100 Mile, JFK 50 Mile, and Black Canyon 100k. Want I am going on?
However what’s driving path racing to change into quicker on the entrance of the pack? Is that this enhance in pace additionally mirrored in mid-pack runners? Is that this actually a leap into a brand new frontier, or have I simply been consuming an excessive amount of iRunFar media?
On this article, I flip to the information to discover how course instances have progressed over time at each the entrance and the center of the sphere. I deal with a dataset comprising “aggressive” ultramarathons. My intention is to have a look at how a number of the hottest races have advanced in aggressive nature over time to:
- Discover the shift in efficiency over time, and
- Study components that may be contributing to efficiency will increase.
Historic information is pulled from DUV Extremely Marathon Statistics.
On this article, I take a look at information involving absolute end instances. I wish to acknowledge that the working circumstances year-to-year aren’t all the time equal and that variables reminiscent of temperature, precipitation, course modifications, and course circumstances do influence instances. I hope to have a look at a big sufficient dataset to visualise key tendencies over time.
Within the second half of this text, we study a number of the potential explanation why path runners are getting quicker.
The beginning of the 2025 Black Canyon 100k, a race the place each the ladies’s and males’s course data fell. Photograph: World Path Majors
Shifts in Efficiency on the Prime of the Area
Let’s begin with high performances. I used to be glued to the display for this 12 months’s Black Canyon 100k, watching the dominant performances of Riley Brady and Seth Ruhling. With a aggressive discipline lining up firstly line and three Western States 100 Golden Tickets on the road in each the ladies’s and males’s races, it was set to be a quick race from the start. On the end, each course data toppled, with Brady going almost half-hour below the earlier girls’s course file, and Ruhling breaking the boys’s by 5 minutes. [Editor’s Note: Riley Brady identifies as non-binary but competes in the women’s division.]
What has the development of those high instances on the Black Canyon 100k seemed like over time? To get a greater view of how efficiency has shifted over time, I plotted the highest 25 outcomes by 12 months and gender since 2014.
Black Canyon 100k Prime 25 Males’s Performances by Yr
Chart exhibiting the ending instances of the highest 25 males on the Black Canyon 100k every year.
Black Canyon 100k Prime 25 Girls’s Performances by Yr
Chart exhibiting the ending instances of the highest 25 girls on the Black Canyon 100k every year.
In these graphs, we are able to see the profitable instances steadily rising over time, however much more attention-grabbing is visualizing the condensing of the sphere because the races change into extra aggressive. For the boys’s discipline in 2014, there was over a five-hour hole between first and twenty fifth place, whereas in 2025 that hole was lower than two hours. An analogous change might be seen over time within the girls’s discipline.
different races we observe an identical development:
Javelina 100 Mile Prime 25 Males’s Performances by Yr
Chart exhibiting the ending instances of the highest 25 males on the Javelina 100 Mile every year.
Javelina 100 Mile Prime 25 Girls’s Performances by Yr
Chart exhibiting the ending instances of the highest 25 girls on the Javelina 100 Mile every year.
CCC Prime 25 Males’s Performances by Yr
Chart exhibiting the ending instances of the highest 25 males at CCC every year.
CCC Prime 25 Girls’s Performances by Yr
Chart exhibiting the ending instances of the highest 25 girls at CCC every year.
Shifts in Efficiency within the Center of the Pack
Is it simply the highest of the sphere that’s getting quicker, or is it everybody? We will see from the graphs above that the highest instances are getting pushed quicker and the entrance of the sphere condensed, however is it simply because a couple of extra of us are gunning for glory on the most high-profile races?
On this subsequent part, we take a look at the whole discipline of those races, to discover what the general middle-of-the-pack development has seemed like. Within the following graphs, we plot the median (center of the pack) end instances over time, together with a match development line.
Javelina 100 Mile Median Performances by Yr
Chart with development line exhibiting the median ending time at Javelina 100 Mile every year.
Black Canyon 100k Median Performances by Yr
Chart with development line exhibiting the median ending time at Black Canyon 100k every year.
CCC Median Performances by Yr
Chart with development line exhibiting the median ending time at CCC every year.
These graphs present a way more muddied image. Some races seem to have middle-of-the-pack performances which might be steadily rising, whereas one is declining. These graphs are doubtless extra variable as they’re depending on the whole discipline, which has grown to embody individuals who all have completely different objectives for competing.
I actually like the next graph of Javelina 100 Mile end instances, that exhibits the distribution of runners ending in sure time buckets. On the left we see the elite runners gunning for podium spots, a spike round 24 hours for folk making an attempt to go sub-24 hours, and one other spike proper earlier than the cutoff for these simply making an attempt to complete.
Chart exhibiting the distribution of ending instances on the Javelina 100 Mile.
Individuals have a wide range of completely different objectives at ultramarathons, and that’s doubtless resulting in the flatter median end instances throughout the whole discipline. It’s attention-grabbing to notice the one race that requires qualification, CCC, has seen a reasonably regular development in quicker end instances. This may recommend that the center of the pack for extra seasoned racers is, the truth is, progressing.
Jennifer St. Amand, the ultimate official finisher of the 2023 Western States 100, who beat the cutoff by 21 seconds. Again from the entrance of the pack, a spread of runners are chasing their very own objectives with completely different motivations. Photograph: iRunFar/Sarah Brady
Doable Components Resulting in Shifts in Efficiency
On this subsequent part, we discover a number of the components which may be contributing to an enchancment in race instances for the highest of the sphere. We deal with the highest performances as these have the clearest upward development over time. Lots of the components mentioned could also be relevant to a wider vary of runners, relying on whether or not they’re using the wave of performance-enhancing components.
In case you’re in search of a clean-cut reply, this part will not be for you. There are a selection of things which will contribute to data being damaged, and far of that is completely speculative at this level, and it’s moreover tough to parse out the person influence of every one. We focus on a couple of at a excessive stage after which dig into a couple of others which have some information surrounding them.
1. Higher Expertise
Carbon-plated footwear are beginning to change into a extra widespread sight at path working occasions, with small effectivity will increase having been discovered amongst runners in some path working terrain in some research. Extra correct coronary heart price displays permit runners to trace their effort ranges and preserve a continuing output over the course of lengthy occasions.
The carbon-plated Nike Ultrafly is one in every of many footwear available on the market to supply the soundness and pace to go quick on trails. Photograph: iRunFar/Eszter Horanyi
2. Fueling
Whereas that is extremely speculative at this level, it’s potential that the just lately popularized high-carbohydrate fueling approach is permitting some athletes to keep up blood glucose ranges for longer durations, main to higher restoration throughout coaching and sustained efforts over longer-distance races.
3. Coaching Principle
As extra information turns into accessible round optimized coaching approaches, elite athletes could possibly push to new ranges by means of optimizing pace and endurance.
4. Elevated Competitors
The sphere of runners lining up for high races is changing into more and more aggressive. With Golden Tickets to the Western States 100 {and professional} contracts on the road, increasingly more high athletes are racing essentially the most prolific occasions. By UTMB Index scores amongst high finishers, we are able to see how this aggressive panorama has shifted over time.
Under is a chart of UTMB Index scores from the Black Canyon 100k males’s discipline in 2022 versus 2025. Rankings are taken from the tip of the prior season, so their efficiency within the occasion doesn’t bias the rankings.
Efficiency indices of high males’s finishers of the 2022 Black Canyon 100k.
Efficiency indices of high males’s finishers of the 2025 Black Canyon 100k.
Within the males’s discipline, the highest 25 finishers in 2022 had a mean index of 782, whereas in 2025 the common index was over 20 factors larger at 804.
Wanting on the girls’s discipline, we see a fair higher shift. In 2022, the common UTMB Index of the highest girls finishers was 662, versus a mean index of 689 in 2025, a 27-point distinction.
Efficiency indices of high girls’s finishers of the 2022 Black Canyon 100k.
Efficiency indices of high girls’s finishers of the 2025 Black Canyon 100k.
I acknowledge that one’s UTMB Index doesn’t outline a runner neither is the UTMB Index a surefire technique to rank athletes and their performances, however it’s a typically useful indication to know the extent of runners getting into a race and the make-up of the highest of the sphere. These more and more aggressive fields demand that runners push from the beginning and take some dangers in pursuit of the rostrum.
Conclusion
The highest of the sphere has been pushed upward during the last a number of years, and we’ll doubtless see this development proceed because of a wide range of components. New know-how, information, and competitors within the ultrarunning world could have all contributed to this efficiency enhance on the high of the sphere, and these components might be useful for all athletes who take advantage of the altering panorama. Wherever you might be in your path working journey, there’s something to be discovered from the components main to hurry enhancements within the sport.
We hope this text gave you some perception into how the course data at high extremely occasions are being pushed upward, and a view of how performances throughout the sphere have shifted over time. There are a selection of things resulting in efficiency will increase, impacting completely different runners in numerous methods.
Regardless of the case, it’s clear that the game is getting quicker. Hop aboard the ship.
Hayden Hawks (U.S.) lets out a yell in celebration on his technique to win the 2024 CCC.
Name for Feedback
- What different components do you suppose are resulting in this shift in efficiency?
- What modifications have you ever noticed in how individuals method ultramarathons?
- Are your race instances bettering? Why/why not?